‘Kung Fu Panda 3’ Masters Friday With Est. $11M+; Now Punching $41M+ Opening – Friday PM Update

Word of mouth on Kung Fu Panda 3 is just as strong as its previous installment with the DreamWorks Animation sequel earning an A CinemaScore tonight.  Projecting off of east coast cash registers which recently closed, non-20th Century Fox estimates have KFP3 at an opening day of $11.3M and an opening weekend of $41M at 3,955 theaters. While that’s less than the $47.7M 3-day of KFP2, keep in mind it’s winter and only 4% of all K-12 schools are off per Rentrak. Nonetheless, it’s still too early to call the weekend on KFP3. During this time of year, animated films make their bread off of Saturday and Sunday matinees. One industry calculation projects a 60% hike on Saturday for KFP3 or $18.1M. All of this could spike by late Saturday night. PLF, 3D pricing are also working in KFP3‘s favor this weekend. KFP3 carries an estimated production cost of $120M-$140M.

20th Century Fox also has the spoil of claiming the No. 2 film as its New Regency title The Revenant stays strong with an industry estimated $3.27M Friday and sixth weekend of $11.6M, down just 27%. Cume by Sunday should be $137.4M As the northeastern seaboard thaws, many distributors are expecting decent holds for last weekend’s films as audiences are hunkering to head back to the cinema. This is true especially with last weekend’s crop — The Boy, The 5th Wave and Dirty Grandpa — registering second weekend declines between -38% and -43%.
Disney’s The Finest Hours  is looking to open with $10.5M in third at 3,143 venues after a $3.5M Friday. Not the best of starts for a movie that carries an estimated budget between $70M-$80M. These seafaring films always have the water against them during production, hence their lofty budgets. Despite the fact that it’s a smart ensemble with Chris Pine, Casey Affleck, Eric Bana and Ben Foster, none of them individually have the marquee power yet of a Channing Tatum or a Leonardo DiCaprio; stars which could sail this pic to a taller wave. Another obstacle for Finest Hours per RelishMix: None of the stars practice social media. Facebook conversation has been dominated by two things: the red carpet premiere and the Q&A with the cast.  That said #Pinenuts have taken over the Q&A with all kinds of questions for Pine, some about Finest Hours, but most related to his favorites, from wine to vacation spots and Star Trek.  On the upside, Finest Hours is coming in with an A- CinemaScore tonight, so this ship might steer to better grosses.